Planning and forecasting future spectrum use are critically important if future spectrum needs are to be met. Forecasting spectrum use is, however, a challenge but one that can be overcome by employing various techniques. Projections based on historical growth of, for example, the number of land mobile systems is one method of forecasting growth. Monitoring new technologies and noting their spectrum requirements is another method. It is critically important to consult with spectrum users since they are usually in the best position to forecast growth in their sector. One must temper such forecasts, however, as there may be a tendency to overestimate future needs.
An important planning capability exists at the international and regional level through the ITU World and Regional Radio Conferences which consider the impact of growing demand for various radio services and technological innovation on existing and planned changes in allocations. The objective being to ensure that adequate spectrum is available for future use. For a more detailed discussion of ITU planning activities and recent World and Regional Radio Conferences see Section 7.2.1 ITU Related Project Activities, and Section 7.2.2 Recent ITU World Radio (WRC) and Regional Radio Conferences (RRC).
The following example from illustrates how consultation and discussion papers dealing with forecasts of future spectrum requirements affecting the reallocation of commercial spectrum rights in New Zealand
Reallocation of Commercial Spectrum Rights – New Zealand
Since 1989, the Government of New Zealand has progressively created and allocated tradable rights to spectrum under the Radiocommunications Act 1989 ("the Act"). Generally speaking spectrum rights have been allocated as:
1. Nationwide "management rights" over frequency bands used for telecommunications services; and,
2. Site and frequency specific "spectrum licences" under Crown-owned management rights in frequency bands used for television and radio broadcasting.
Spectrum rights for commercial use are usually allocated by competitive tender or auction. The Government reserves and allocates spectrum rights to meet specific government objectives contained in non-commercial broadcasting policy and to meet Treaty of Waitangi obligations. All spectrum rights are subject to the fees set out in the Radiocommunications Regulations. Under the Act, spectrum rights have a maximum term of 20 years. The first rights created, for UHF television, expire in 2010. Rights for AM and FM sound broadcasting expire in 2011 and VHF television rights (TV1, TV2, TV3 and C4) in 2015. Expiry dates for mobile telephone services vary, with the first rights expiring in 2011.
The Act provides that rights revert to the Crown at expiry, but is silent as to how they should be allocated or reallocated. An amendment to the Act in 2000 allows the Crown to create a "succeeding" management right ahead of expiry, to ensure a seamless transition from one term to another.
Several reasons are included in the discussion paper for not issuing new spectrum rights.
A case-by-case review is required to ensure consistency with New Zealand's international radio obligations and the general objective of maximizing the value of the spectrum to society as a whole.
The Ministry will consider the current and likely future use of the particular spectrum, based on available market and technical information, and whether reallocation of the rights in the current form will maximize the value of the spectrum.
http://www.rsm.govt.nz/cms